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Think Agri Real Insights
Season 2 – September 2021
[/fusion_text][fusion_accordion type=”toggles” boxed_mode=”yes” border_size=”1″ border_color=”” background_color=”” hover_color=”” divider_line=”” title_font_size=”” icon_size=”” icon_color=”” icon_boxed_mode=”” icon_box_color=”” icon_alignment=”” toggle_hover_accent_color=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=””][fusion_toggle title=”Introduction” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Introduction
The TARI momentum continues as does the momentum of the winter crop growing season Australia wide. TARI exists to help you prosper more and worry less. TARI provides gentle (and some not so gentle) reminders that production, profit and people components of the business need attention. For croppers its as simple as crops, people, money all steered by you.
In this episode of Think Agri REAL Insights:
- Topic 1 ponders the Carbon sequestration story.
- Topic 2 is a personal story about the ripple effect of farm accidents.
- Topic 3 provides a revenue calculator in the lead up to harvest.
There are some suggestions for action for those who want to go that one step further.
Stay well, farm well.
Kate.
[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 1 – Keeping a Lid On Carbon?” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Introduction
Carbon is the flavour of the month it seems and there is much curiosity about the promise of Carbon sequestration for offsetting emissions and providing another source of income for land owners.
The demand side
Big Business is acting on Climate Change. The Australian Financial Review recently reported the trebling of ASX200 companies committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (14 companies March 2020 to 49 companies in March). Various Australian Agriculture sectors have committed to Carbon neutrality. Even the Murdoch press is reported to have changed tack on carbon emissions.
The supply side
Think of SOC storage capacity like the size of a hay shed. The deep well-structured self-mulching clays (vertosols) found on the Darling Downs in Queensland are a much larger carbon “shed” than the fragile sands that dominate Western Australia’s farming landscape. In Victoria, alone, soils range from sands with SOC circa 0.5% to deep clays with SOC in the range of 1 to 2% or greater. See Table 1 for more examples.
Then there’s the variability within paddocks based on soil type and the variability across the farm.
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| Soil type based on texture and some examples | Proportion of water unavailable to the plant | Plant available water holding capacity mm/100cm soil depth | Nutrient supply capacity based on cation exchange capacity (meq/100g) and soil organic carbon (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sands and gravels | Low | Low | Low |
| Forest gravels, WA | 40-80 | CEC<10 | |
| Sands in WA, SA, Vic | SOC 0.3-1.0 | ||
| Loams | Medium | Medium | Medium |
| (Sandy Loam to Clay loam) Mallee sandy loam swales in Vic | 120-180 | CEC 7-25 | |
| Red brown earths in SA, NSW and Vic | SOC 0.8-1.8 | ||
| Clays | High | High | High |
| (Clays and self-mulching clay) Darling Downs Qld | 150-200 | CEC 20-60 | |
| Northern NSW | SOC 0.8-2.5 | ||
| Wimmera Vic |
Table 1 Soil types and implications of nutrient and water supply (Soil Quality Pty Ltd, 2020)
[/fusion_table]
The Carbon cycle is like the activity going in and out of the hay shed. Scientific surveys of Carbon stocks across Australian farms demonstrate what factors are more important than others in determining the pace of the activity.
Broadly it goes in the order of :
climate -temperature and rainfall
soil type
farm type
farm management practice.
Victoria’s agricultural regions are generally hotter and drier in then north west and cooler and wetter in the south. Dairy systems tend to have higher carbon stocks due permanent pasture history. Broadacre farms with a pasture component can have higher stocks than farms cropped continuously.
Stubble retention, eliminating burning and reducing cultivation all help build SOC. Such management practices can have small incremental changes over a long period of time. Estimates are in the magnitude of <1 t/C/Ha/year. Soil type variability means that the carbon shed size can actually varying across the same paddock.
So, the amount of carbon “bales” going in and out of the varying size carbon sheds is highly variable and incredibly complex.
Carbon Market knowledge
The demand is strong and the market is to serve that demand is growing rapidly but is still at a very immature stage.
Curious Carbon aggregators are measuring and modelling their way through the very immature Carbon market.
What’s not certain is the knowledge base of the carbon supply complexity among the Carbon buyers and the middlemen and woman (the aggregators).
Like all new markets, there will be various levels of knowledge and experience. If you are interested in Carbon Projects, so your homework on the aggregators and their level of experience and the robustness of their modelling techniques.
Projects such as the Cool Soils Initiative and various soil carbon components of the CRC for high performance soils and the national soils strategy will help educate the both sides of the market. For now though, I think it’s a case of seller beware.
While the demand is clear, the supply side of Carbon sequestration is a slow moving, yet highly fluctuating complex beast that raises more questions than answers.
- Will the projects undertaken in the schemes make a material difference to SOC levels over a period of 25 years or longer?
- Will participation in the Carbon market impede or enhance the landowners purpose which is generally to remain productive and profitable and leave the farm’s natural resource in good condition for future generations?
It’s early days and time will tell.
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Prefer to listen? You can find the audio of this topic below.
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[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 1 – Suggestions for Action” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Take up the soil testing subsidy scheme and start building a data set
Aggregate the data you already have in your soil test file (a quick look at historical data sets of some farms indicates some magnificent progress in soil carbon levels from the early 1990s to now, thanks to less cultivation and less stubble burning).
Do your homework on carbon aggregators that may come knocking on your door
Resources
https://www.soilquality.org.au/factsheets/how-much-carbon-can-soil-store
https://riverineplains.org.au/cool-soil-initiative-update/
[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 2 – The Ripple Effect of Farm Accidents” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Introduction
AFL grand final week is a favourite in our house yet back in 1979 it got off to shaky start after my oldest brother lent in and started the tractor while still standing beside it. Something many of us have done before without consequence. I was eleven and the memories shared beow aim to provide insight into the ripple effect of farm accidents.
I don’t normally share deeply personal stories in TARI but I have written about our own families experience this time to demonstrate that being safe on farm is more than a tick the box, don’t get in trouble from the regulators activity.
We sometimes giggle about the risks we took and got away with as kids and sheepishly acknowledge the near misses as adults. Some families though aren’t so lucky and the ripple effect looms, especially for kids who live through the periods of turmoil following a farm accident.
Ged’s Story
In the 150 years of McCormick’s farming at Elmore, it hasn’t been droughts or high interest rates that have had the most significant negative impact. The largest and longest ramification started with a five-minute incident and a five-second mistake in September 1979 on a farm 30 kilometres up the road. My oldest brother Ged was working for a family friend. He took a shortcut – as young blokes do – and came off second best. He was 23 then, he is now 65 and still managing the repercussions of multiple compound fractures in both legs and a broken pelvis. Luckily there was no head or spinal injury. The trauma and disruption to Ged, the entire family and the farm has been ongoing for 42 years. Ged’s done remarkably well to keep farming but lives a life of what-ifs.
My Story
And it wasn’t just Ged who was impacted. That afternoon is imprinted in my memory.
It was 3.40 pm on Monday September 23 1979 and another Grade six day was done. Donna my cousin approached. “Dad’s here. You’ve got to come home with us”. Uncle George drove a burgundy Chrysler Valiant Regal with a vinyl roof. George made me sit in the front. He finally spoke. “Your father rang. Gerard’s had an accident.”
Gerard, Ged for short, is my eldest brother. Ged is 23. I’m 11. Ged worked on our farm and for Tony and Lorraine who were tomato farmers. It wasn’t a good day for Ged. He was ran over by the tractor and his legs got caught in the rotary hoe. That’s all George could tell me as we drove out to The Ranch where he and Aunty Maureen lived.
Aunty Maureen gave me a big cuddle in her tiny kitchen. She was cuddlier than Mum and I wasn’t sure about it. We had chocolate milk and chocolate cake. Aunty Maureen offered words of comfort and Uncle George looked at his feet.
“It’s okay to cry” said Aunty Maureen I said “no thanks, I need to do my homework”.
Aunty Mary rang Aunty Maureen with more news. Ged was going to Melbourne from Bendigo. No spinal injuries, no head injuries, broken pelvis, compound fractures of both legs.
Aunty Maureen said I could stay the night but I’d never stayed there before. And it was Brownlow night, I want to watch it with my brothers at home. I was allowed to stay up late on Brownlow night.
The phone rang again. It was Carmel, my big sister. She was 22 and a first year teacher at St Marys Rushworth. I asked to go home and she said yes. Thank goodness. I loved Aunty Maureen and Uncle George and Donna but I just wanted to go home. I finished off my homework, packed up my things and waited for Carmel.
Ged’s Story
Ged was in the Austin Hospital for three months and was nursed by Mum at home for another year. He learnt to walk again with the aid of callipers in his boots. He got back to farm duties but in a reduced capacity. Ged never married. He’s had around 20 operations since then.
The Family’s Story
Carmel spent most of that term commuting to Rushworth from home and running the household while Mum and Dad dealt with Gerard’s health. My three other brothers all did the farm work. Francis was still at school. In year 11. Paul was a wool classer and David worked for another farmer. Any time not doing their day jobs was spent doing the farm work.
Most of my weekends in the first three months were spent in Melbourne visiting Mum and Ged. The Boomtown Rats lead by Bob Geldolf had a hit with “I don’t like Mondays”. I didn’t like Mondays either. It meant I wouldn’t see Mum for another week.
Sometimes I stayed at other people’s houses. I had to eat pumpkin and fruit cake and be polite. It made me feel sick to eat fruit cake, but I knew it was the right thing to do. Dad said they were trying to help and we had to be nice. I missed my Mum.
The Elmore community baked and provided practical gifts and practical care. Young blokes with wild hair were somewhat tamed by the shock of one of their own being hurt so badly. The road to the Austin Hospital was well travelled as they went to see their mate. The Melbourne cousins washed laundry and visited often. Gran prayed.
We all resumed our lives, but they would never be the same and still aren’t. Ged is now 65 and has had about 20 operations since that 10 second lapse in 1979. Ged loves his sheep and is still farming despite his mobility declining each year. The ripple effect is still rippling.
Prefer to listen? You can find the audio of this topic below.
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[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 2 – Suggestions for Actions” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
List 10 people that would be impacted if something happened to you in a farm accident?
List 10 common sense things that could keep you safer every day?
[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 3 – Introducing the Revenue Times Tables to Aid Decision Making During the Premiership Quarter” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Introduction
Whether you know it or not, your brain is filing information such as relative grain prices, typical crop maturing order and typical yields. We use this information subconsciously for decision making around grain selling, harvest logistics and our attitude to risk. These brain files are called mental models and they are useful for typical years and typical situations. The rules of thumb or shortcuts that come from those mental models are what’s called heuristics. They are a bit like the aps in our phone.
The challenge is when our brains are busy or we are stressed, or the situation is different to most years, there’s a risk of these brain aps going haywire.
Practical Data keeps the brain on track
Not only does neuroscience tell us that our mental short cuts aren’t always right, especially in unusual years or in busy times. The research also says that using numbers and data in such situations is more likely to engage the rational side of the brain.
Grain prices are above average for most commodities this year and for some commodities they are literally off the charts. In years such as this, it’s easy to underestimate the potential value of your crop using the brain ap.
I’ve developed a quick reference guide to help validate the mental assumptions.
You can quickly check the value of the crop in $/ha based on an estimated yield and price range.
Prefer to listen? You can find the audio of this topic below.
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[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Topic 3 – Suggestions for Action” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
Use the reference guide to estimate a revenue range for each paddock and each crop type.
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Download below or via your email for this episode.
[/fusion_toggle][fusion_toggle title=”Audio” open=”no” class=”” id=””]
The full audio file with all topics and suggested actions can be accessed here or via your own private link to your favourite podcast player (this has been emailed through to you).
Looking for individual topics? You can find these in each tab above.
Any queries please don’t hesitate to contact us.
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